Understanding the Threat Assessment Pathway to Violence

A behavioral framework for identifying escalation — not predicting the future

When an act of violence happens, people often ask the same question:

“Why didn’t anyone see this coming?”

The truth is, targeted violence is rarely random. It is rarely impulsive. And it is almost never without warning signs.

But those warning signs don’t always come in the form of a direct threat.

Sometimes there is no statement. No manifesto. No dramatic warning.

Instead, there is a process.

A shift in thinking. A building grievance. A gradual move from frustration… to fixation… to action.

Understanding that process is where the Threat Assessment Pathway to Violence becomes critically important.

When mental health professionals talk about violence risk, many immediately think of structured tools such as:

• HCR-20 (Historical, Clinical, Risk-20) – widely regarded as the gold standard for assessing violence risk in adults.

• Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) – focused on short- to medium-term risk and protective factors.

• Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) – adapted specifically for assessing risk factors in juveniles.

• Workplace Assessment of Violence Risk (WAVR-21) – a 21-item structured instrument focusing on targeted workplace violence.

These tools are structured professional judgment instruments. They evaluate historical, clinical, and contextual risk factors to estimate likelihood of violence.

The Threat Assessment Pathway to Violence, however, is different.

It is not a predictive actuarial instrument. It does not calculate statistical probability. It does not diagnose.

Instead, it provides a behavioral map of escalation — a way to articulate where someone may be in a progression toward targeted violence, especially in situations where no explicit threat has been made.

This framework becomes especially useful when professionals need to explain why concern is elevated even in the absence of a direct threat.

The Pathway to Violence: Stages of Escalation

1. Grievance

Someone is unhappy about something.

The grievance can be:

• Real

• Perceived

• Exaggerated

• Rooted in distorted thinking

• Influenced by mental illness

The key element is perceived injustice.

At this stage, many individuals de-escalate naturally. Some seek help. Some move on.

Others do not.

2. Ideation

This is the “lightbulb moment.”

Violence becomes:

• An option

• A fantasy

• A solution

• Or, in some cases, the only solution

The person may begin:

• Ruminating

• Rehearsing scenarios mentally

• Viewing violence as justified

No action may yet be taken — but cognition has shifted.

3. Research & Planning

This stage almost always involves information gathering.

Examples may include:

• Searching targets online

• Studying layouts or schedules

• Reviewing prior attacks

• Writing plans

• Identifying vulnerabilities

This is where concern becomes significantly elevated.

The individual is no longer just thinking — they are operationalizing.

4. Preparation

Preparation involves acquiring the means to carry out the plan.

This may include:

• Purchasing weapons

• Gathering equipment

• Testing materials

• Making final arrangements

A phrase often used in trainings is: “Adding things to cart.”

Intent is becoming tangible.

5. Breach

A breach is a trespass — literal or figurative — for the purpose of:

• Pre-operational surveillance

• Testing security

• Or initiating the attack

Sometimes this looks like:

• Showing up unexpectedly

• Gaining access to restricted areas

• Conducting dry runs

This is often the last point where intervention can prevent harm.

6. Attack

The act of violence.

No explanation required.

Critical Clarifications

1. The Pathway is Dynamic

Movement is not always linear.

Individuals can:

• Escalate quickly

• Stall

• De-escalate

• Re-enter the pathway months or years later

The speed at which someone moves up the pathway varies significantly.

And importantly — do not dismiss intent simply because time has passed. Some individuals remain in grievance or ideation for extended periods before accelerating rapidly.

2. It Is Not a Prediction Model

Unlike the HCR-20, START, SAVRY, or WAVR-21, the pathway does not generate a “high / moderate / low” score.

It is a behavioral articulation framework.

It helps professionals answer:

• How concerned should we be right now?

• Is this person escalating?

• Where are they in the process?

• What intervention window are we in?

3. Absence of a Threat ≠ Absence of Risk

Many targeted attacks occur without a communicated threat.

The pathway is particularly valuable when:

• No direct threat has been made

• The person denies intent

• Others minimize concern because “they never said they would do anything”

Behavior tells a story long before words do.

Final Thought

The pathway to violence is not about labeling people.

It is about recognizing behaviors. It is about intervening early. It is about understanding that violence is rarely spontaneous — it is often a process.

And processes can be interrupted.